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DINNER WITH PROF. MACOMBER – 10 JAN 2012 Location: South Beauty
Restaurant About
35 people showed up during HCI dinner event with Prof John Macomber at South
Beauty. We have some guests from
real-estate and infrastructure sector such as Pak Hiramsyah
S. Thaib (Bakrieland), Pak Budi Lesmana (Triyasa Property), Pak Eddi Santosa
(Jakarta MRT), Pak Hyanto Wihadhi (Jababeka), Pak Budianto Liman
(Jababeka) We
are truly blessed for 3 reasons: Reason 1: It is the beginning of the New Year
2012. We all survived 2011, and can
start the year with good gathering to socialize amongst alumni, enjoy a good
dinner and engage in some discussion around a topic close to all of us:
creating value in sustainable cities; about how urbanization and resource
constraints create opportunities for private capital. Reason 2: We have the luxury of a senior HBS lecturer in real-estate as Prof. Macomber to come and speak to us here in
Indonesia. Reason 3: Apart from the nominal cost of the dinner, all John’s expenses are fully
paid, as he is here by invitation of another organization. We have some unexpected spillover benefits! John shared several case studies including how Mexico city
pumped so much water, such that the land dropped by 7m. But surprisingly this is not due to a large
demand of water, but due to inefficiency of old broken pipes. He shared how the green concept in building is more influenced
by the high density, high verticality, and wide availability of public transit,
more than making wind and solar power more widely available. This leads Schneider Electric to think about
electricity management, by optimizing demand and supply. John shared some of the conclusions from his class, to solve the
issue of urbanization and resource constraints: 1). Stretch natural resources. Stretch productivity. 2). Configuration matters a lot. Good urban planning (density) matters
a lot. 3). Sharing matters a lot. Sharing of generator, A/C.
Sharing automobiles. 4) Optimizing matters. Load balancing He is optimistic that since these are not about technical
questions, but more about negotiations, about incentives, in the end we can
solve these issues. The key of solving it lies in the following quote: “Business can
solve big problems in the world, but no big problems can be solved without
business (cases)” John’s
address was followed by provoking questions (ala HBS case study classroom),
with some lengthy complete answers. Hope
to see all of you in our next events! 2011 CEO FORUM – 6 DEC 2011
Location: Pacific
Place
Event was well attended by CEOs, public and policy makers.
Airlangga
Hartarto - Ketua Umum Asosiasi Emiten Indonesia,
mentioned that economic
integration is key to globalization. Italy's loan Euro 276 Bn. Spain Euro
185 Bn; loan will rollover. Money from IMF will only be enough to cover
these 2 countries fallout. Analyst
projecting 5.7% GDP growth in Indonesia, one of the few countries that is
projected to growth next year. Bahrain (investment grade) has higher
interest rate than Indonesia (which is not investment grade). Indonesia
at debt/GDP level of 25% (vs euroland at 100%) is ironic. The current
projection is that 3-6 months ahead, Indonesia will become investment grade.
This will increase FDI more into Indonesia.
To keep Indonesia growing at 6.5%+ rate, Indonesia needs to keep up the effort in the traditional market (US, European, Asia Pacific). It has to tap into ME, Africa, South America. In South Africa there is 1.5 mn Indonesians, and GDP per capita at USD 6000 per capita. This is opportunity for Indonesian to export goods and services which will appeal to them. Indonesia needs to be smart about where to send our goods and services. This is followed by panel discussion: Julian Wilson EU rep in Indonesia; Scot Marciel - US Ambassador to Indonesia; Milan Zavadjil - Senior representatives Jakarta office, IMF Some brief excerpt from the panel discussions are below: Opening remarks Scot Marciel - US Ambassador to Indonesia US went through the worst financial crisis since the great depression. Quick action by US government, allow us to avoid another depression. A lot of controversial actions was taken; including taking over private enterprise by governments. The auto sector is performing quite well now. But it is not a fix for all move. There are many encouraging signs in the US. Manufacturing ISM index at 52 in Nov'11 is higher than China's 48 (Anything higher than 50 mena expansion). Retail sales growth is at +6% Fiscal deficit at 8% of GDP is manageable (no immediate debt crisis; as US is borrowing at record low US Treasury rates), but there needs to be action to fix this going forward. There is some frustration level that employment rate is high (10% level). A lot of manufacturing jobs have gone overseas. Middle class have suffered flat income in the past 10-20 years. But we
are confident about the future: 1)
Corporate earnings are good 2) Consumers are paying down debt
3)
Stepping up efforts to promote trade. Opening
remarks by Julian Wilson EU rep in Indonesia The EU's
challenge: - What is
the EU doing to resolve the problem? - How
will our situation affect Indonesia?
- How can we work better together in this global situation?
Germany 20%, France 16%, UK 14% of EU GDP. Portugal + Greece is 3%. Italy is 13% GDP. The countries with major EU GDP has debt profile similar to the US. The ones with high debt profile relatively has much smaller proportion of EU GDP. We need to keep perspective of this. On top of
fiscal austerity plan, Europe is doing REAL reform in: -
Increase flexibility (labor, law, services) - Boost
productive sector investment (Euro 50 Bn investment in R&D and Infrastructure) - Opening up to the world economy (not to move to protectionism) EU is Indonesia's second largest partner after US, and yet the EU imports 86% from the other Asian members. Indonesia has a lot of room to grow here. EU is Indonesia's largest FDI source after Singapore, but this is ONLY 1.6% of total EU FDI to Asia. There is a lot of opportunity to increase this. We need to seriously consider the trade issue to resolve conflicts and realize the opportunities.
DISCUSSION WITH PROF. NOURIEL ROUBINI – 24 OCT 2011
Pak Gita Wirjawan and Pak John Prasetio have graciously offered 30 spots for HCI members for the discussion with Prof Nouriel Roubini on current global economic situation in BKPM People call Prof Roubini as Dr.Doom; but he prefers to be called Dr Realist. Served as senior economist for International Affairs at US Treasury Department. Roubini has accurately predicted the Lehman Brothers default. It was Prof. Roubini’s first trip to Indonesia, and he noted that Indonesia very important economy to the world. He sees that there are positive developments in the economy: 1) Rise of the emerging market economies. A greater of global GDP is made up of emerging markets. 2) Balance sheet of corporations in emerging/developed market is strong. Massive build up of treasury reserve. 3) Openness to trade and globalization 4) Improvement in human capital (education), innovation, research and development, which improve productivity He also saw some downside risks: 1) China could have a hard landing, because of over-reliance on export orientation. Increase in NPL, as many of these projects are not economically feasible. Large government debt. 80% of GDP is government debt (not the official 17%, as you need to add all the provincial government debt) 2) Severe financial crisis in the US; there is a recovery, but anemic, sub-par; more like a U-shaped recovery (instead of a V-shaped). Difficulties in US household. Provincial balance sheet issues. If there are issues in the US, even strong and resilient emerging markets, will be impacted. 3) Germany, France and UK are heading for a downturn. Growing of less than 1%. 4) Risk of backlash against globalization. Need to make sure that Globalization is beneficial for all, with the right structure etc. 5) A disorderly unwinding. Financial shock can be severe; can be as large of a shock similar to the Lehman Brothers situation. If Eurozone issue cause some member countries to default, and spread the contagion. The problem in Eurozone is not short-term. Have a fiscal and large budget deficit. NPL in banks' balance sheets. Liquidity crisis, as well as competitiveness crisis (Euro currency becoming strong). Potential growth is slowing because of demographic transitioning to older people; and the productivity has been falling. These are not problems that can be fixed quickly. His final
conclusion, despite his reputation for being Dr. Gloom is not too gloomy after
all: There will be issues coming from US, Europe and even China, but there will be potential for emerging market like Indonesia to grow higher, with sound economics politics, and resilient private sector. Roubini says in closing: "I am very OPTIMISTIC about this country." The
presentation is closed by some Q&A sessions with questions by the like of
Pak Emil Salim, and Fauzi Ichsan.
JOINT BUKA PUASA BERSAMA – 9 AUG 2011 Location: Ritz Carlton
Schools attending: Harvard, MIT, Stanford, UC Berkeley, University of Chicago “Applications of Biological Research in
Renewable Energy Sources and Medical Products” Professor Shuguang Zhang, MIT, USA Date: Tuesday August 9, 2011 Time: 3:00 – 5:00 PM Venue; @america, Pacific Place 3rd floor, Sudirman CBD, Jakarta Professor Shuguang Zhang is the head Laboratory of Molecular Design, Center for Bits & Atoms at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA. He received his B.S. from Sichuan University, China and Ph.D. from University of California at Santa Barbara, USA. He was an American Cancer Society Postdoctoral Fellow (1988-1991) and Whitaker Foundation Investigator (1998-2002) at MIT. He has received numerous awards throughout the world such as R&D100 award in 2004 and Wilhelm Exner Medal of Austria in 2006. He has published over 150 scientific papers, has 9 issued patents and 19 pending patent applications. He has founded 3 biotech startups, one of which is scheduled for IPO in 2011.
LUNCH WITH PROF. KLITGAARD
– 5 JULY 2011 |